The blog
© Maritime Museum of Tatihou Island 2005
No, these are not the catastrophic rantings of an inveterate collapsologist, but a very serious study reported by the climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf. I give here a French and freely adapted transcription.
The warm currents that reach Europe are now called by climatologists AMOC, in English the "Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation". Read more …
The Pacific Ocean is switching from an El Niño event at the beginning of the year 2024 to a La Niña event expected at the end of this summer. But it seems, for NOAA scientists, that a similar phenomenon is also occurring at this same time in the Atlantic Ocean (¹). Read more …
The climatic phenomenon ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) had experienced a new episode El Niño towards the end of spring 2023 in the tropical regions of the Pacific (¹). After reaching a peak between November and December 2023, the phenomenon began to decrease (²). During the second quarter 2024 he returned to a situation called " Neutral ”. But quickly from July a new episode La Niña started, whose climatic consequences are the opposite of the previous episode.
Source : NOAA Climate / ENSO Blog Read more …
Episode 2 – Illustrations
Forecasts IFREMER (see Episode 1) available in Weather4D are of two kinds :
These files concern areas of the Channel and Atlantic whose coverage and resolutions are significantly different. Read more …
Episode 1 – Description
Since 7 May 2024 the latest versions of Weather4D have been enriched with several new weather and ocean models (¹). Among the latter, ultra-high resolution current and wave forecast models from’Ifremer come in addition to Copernicus models (formerly called MyOcean) for the Channel and Atlantic coasts. These forecasts are provided with hectometric grids, can be reduced up to 190 meters for some models. So Ifremer, what is ? Read more …
An incomprehensible malfunction occurred recently for a Weather4D user, sailing in a “lost hole” on the edge of the Indian Ocean, namely the Cocos Islands, challenged me to the point of getting lost in conjectures. A GFS file due ten days ago categorically refused to be displayed in the application with the date, damn !
This unfortunate sailor - for which I would like to thank him - forced me to make a determined search for the cause of the problem.. After much procrastination, explorations of settings that may be faulty, since no other user had reported such a problem to us, the light finally came out ! Read more …
Latest releases Lite, Routing, Routing & Navigation arrive with a full renewed list of weather and ocean models in order to allow users to benefit from the evolution of the offer of international forecasting models. At the same time, all GRIB files go to format GRIB-2, this allows for a reduction in their size and a better compression ratio. Read more …
Following the prediction of an episode El Niño started in March 2023 (¹) and confirmed the following June (²), this climatic phenomenon of the Pacific Ocean, called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), strengthened until the end of December, early January 2024.
The February ENSO forecast developed by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center predicts that we are on the eve of an episode La Niña, even though the Pacific Ocean is still affected by the El Niño episode. According to the forecast, there is 79 % chance that El Niño will become neutral by April-June, and 55 % chance that the Pacific will return to ENSO La Niña between June and August.
El Niño continues to develop in tropical Pacific regions. Forecasters expect the phenomenon to continue until spring, with 75 down to 85 % likely to become an intense event. A stronger El Niño – the definition of which will follow – means that it is more likely that we will see its effects reflected in winter temperatures and rain and snow patterns around the world.
Source & screenshots : NOAA – Emily Becker freely translated. Read more …
After three years of La Niña phenomenon (¹) in the tropical Pacific Ocean (from mid-2020 to mid-2023) having brought a fairly calm meteorological situation to Polynesia : regular trade winds, lack of hurricane, mainly dry weather, this idyllic situation will be reversed with the announced return (²) of the El Niño phase of the ENSO climate phenomenon (El Niño Southern Oscillation). Finally, idyllic, it wasn't for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Melanesia and western Australia, which experienced episodes of intense rainfall well above normal and an upsurge in hurricanes during the same period. Read more …