Category : Meteorology

As a result of the prediction of an episode El Niño started in March 2023 (¹) and confirmed the following June (²), this climatic phenomenon of the Pacific Ocean, called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), strengthened until the end of December, early January 2024.

The February ENSO forecast developed by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center predicts that we are on the eve of an episode La Niña, even though the Pacific Ocean is still affected by the El Niño episode. According to forecasts, there is 79 % chance that El Niño will become neutral by April-June, up to 55 % chance that the Pacific will return to ENSO La Niña between June and August.

Source : Tom Di Liberto – ENSO Blog / Climate.gov

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El Niño continues to develop in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect the phenomenon to continue into the spring, with 75 up to 85 % chances of it becoming an intense event. A stronger El Niño – The definition of which follows – means it's more likely that we'll see its effects reflected in winter temperatures and rain-and-snow patterns around the world.

Source & screenshots : NOAA – Emily Becker Freely translated. Read more …

After three years of La Niña (¹) in the tropical Pacific Ocean (mid-2020 to mid-2023) having brought a fairly calm weather situation on Polynesia : regular trade winds, lack of hurricane, mainly dry weather, this idyllic situation will be reversed with the announced return (²) of the El Niño phase of the ENSO climate phenomenon(El Niño Southern Oscillation). Finally, idyllic, it wasn't for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Melanesia and western Australia, which experienced much higher than normal intense rainfall and increased hurricanes during the same period. Read more …