Following the prediction of an episode El Niño started in March 2023 (¹) and confirmed the following June (²), this climatic phenomenon of the Pacific Ocean, called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), strengthened until the end of December, early January 2024.
The February ENSO forecast developed by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center predicts that we are on the eve of an episode La Niña, even though the Pacific Ocean is still affected by the El Niño episode. According to the forecast, there is 79 % chance that El Niño will become neutral by April-June, and 55 % chance that the Pacific will return to ENSO La Niña between June and August.
After three years of La Niña phenomenon (
Florence Rabier, Director General of ECMWF, has developed February the 13 th European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast for 2023 (
March, the 
Trafalgar Hit for the flagship of European meteorology, despite Brexit and contrary to what had been planned (
I've been asked this question regularly, but until now I've never wanted to give my opinion on the subject publicly, so as not to offend anyone or create unnecessary controversy.. But after doing so many of my training courses, why not express it to me openly ?