In Weather4D (all versions) most weather models provide a data called CAPE.
Convective Available Potential Energy, in French : Energie potentielle de convection disponible. Behind this obscure acronym hides a powerful storm forecasting tool. CAPE is measured in Joules per kilogram of air (J/Kg) and defines the vertical buoyancy energy of a hot air particle in a colder atmosphere. In other words, vertical acceleration of the air particle will be directly related to this energy measurement.
The CAPE therefore gives a measure of the instability of an air mass. This is one of the parameters used by meteorologists to estimate the potential for violence of a thunderstorm. Indeed, the stronger the updraft, more it can support large hails, or a large mass of precipitation.
Storm Cell (source Météo-France)
To the least scientific of us, Olivier Bouyssou, as a great teacher, Explains :
"The CAPE is not a sufficient condition for the appearance of thunderstorms. By analogy, it can be compared to the powder in the barrel, but you also need the wick... and the lighter to light it. Actually, is an interesting indication if it is associated with precipitation. In France, values > 1500 J/Kg + precipitation is often linked to severe thunderstorms. It must therefore be interpreted as a probability. ”
CAPE displayed in shades of red associated with precipitation isoareas displayed in blue
Weather4D adds this data by default to the settings available in zone creation. This is essential information for predicting the occurrence of storms. To activate it, You must select it from the display options for each model.
The episode of intense CAPE above shows the risks of thunderstorms that can occur early in the summer season in the Mediterranean, and which, with the increasing warming of sea temperatures, can cause the creation of Medicans (¹)
The more knowledgeable of you can visit the articles on the CAPE in Wikipedia :
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(¹) You said « Medicane » ?
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